Stock Market: The victory of BJP alliance in Maharashtra and the return of JMM alliance to power in Jharkhand in the assembly election results can have a positive impact on the stock market in the coming week. Along with this, the November change in the world's largest index MSCI will start from Monday, due to which, according to the current situation of the index and the upcoming prospects, a positive trend can be seen for the market in the short term.

In the coming week, the impact of the results of the assembly elections held in many states of the country can also be seen on the stock market. At the same time, changes are also going to start in MSCI, which will also have some impact on the market. These are some major factors that can affect the stock market this week-

The RSI has entered a bullish crossover near the oversold zone, indicating a positive movement. In the short term, the sentiment is considered favorable for an uptrend as long as the index remains above 23,600. Immediate resistance is seen at 23,960-24,000. A decisive move above 24,000 can trigger a rally towards 24,500. Conversely, support is placed at 23,750 and 23,550.

Assembly Elections

Market experts have termed the election results of Maharashtra as favorable for D-Street. Maharashtra is a big state and also the commercial capital of the country, while the defeat of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Jharkhand does not seem to have any adverse effect.

Let us tell you that the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance has won the assembly elections in Maharashtra. The alliance won 230 out of 288 seats. This victory is expected to give a positive movement to the development of D-Street when the market reopens. 

Meanwhile, in Jharkhand, the JMM Alliance has regained power by winning 56 out of 81 seats, which indicates that the situation in the state will remain the same.

MSCI November Changes

Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI), the world's largest index compiler, will begin its November rebalancing from Monday. In which BSE, Voltas, Alkem Laboratories, Kalyan Jewelers and Oberoi Realty will become part of the MSCI Global Standard Index. As a result, India may see a net FII passive inflow of about $ 2.5 billion due to rebalancing.

The domestic markets will take cues from their overseas peers, especially Wall Street.

FII/DII Action

On Friday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers of Rs 1,278.37 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of Rs 1,722.15 crore.

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have been net sellers of Indian equities worth Rs 26,533 crore in November so far. The total outflow so far this year i.e. in 2024 is Rs 19,940 crore. It stood at Rs 1,00,245 crore at the end of September.

Rupee vs Dollar Factor

The Indian rupee on Friday reached its lowest level of 84.5075 against the US dollar and then closed at a higher level. In fact, the currency got support due to the intervention of the central bank amid the US dollar reaching a two-year high level and it closed at a higher level. However, the currency remained slightly lower on the weekly rate.

The dollar index hit a peak of 108.09 on Friday, the highest level since November 2022, before rising 0.5 per cent to 107.69. The greenback was boosted by weakness in the euro and the British pound after weak economic data from Germany and the UK.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also asked traders to avoid buying spot dollars to execute arbitrage trades. "It is expected that the rupee will fall to 85 against the dollar by the end of December," says Anshul Chandak, treasury head of RBL Bank.

The rupee has weakened by about 0.5 percent so far in November. In fact, overseas investors withdrew more than $4 billion from local equity and debt, which also weakened the rupee. Apart from this, the dollar has gained momentum after Donald Trump's election victory on November 5.