Former President and Republican Party candidate Donald Trump has won the US presidential election.
Nageshwaran says, we know Trump's policy agenda and we also have an idea of its impact on global business. We have time to prepare till the new President takes office in January. In view of this, now ministers from many departments to people associated with the financial market are going to prepare to change policies accordingly, understanding the implications of Trump's return to America.
He said that there are many areas on which we are working, which will be in line with Trump's policies. There is no possibility of any major obstacle or major problem for India due to Trump's return to power. In such a situation, I see the baseline scenario of India's position remaining at its place at the global level. Saying anything on India's GDP growth right now is speculation Nageshwaran said that the data of half a year is yet to come. In such a situation, saying anything on India's GDP growth right now would be mere speculation. At present, it cannot be said with certainty whether we will be at the upper end or lower end of the 6.5-7% range. However, the environment is favorable for a pick-up in capital expenditure by private and public sectors and a return to strength in urban consumption. It remains to be seen what may happen in the financial market at the global level, as there are many risk factors for India in it. In our latest Monthly Economic Report, we also maintain our estimate of India's GDP growth rate in the range of 6.5 to 7% in FY 2025. In such a situation, the range of 6.5-7% seems appropriate for the actual result for India's GDP in the current financial year. Our forecast has already been kept keeping in mind some high frequency data indicators. Considering all these things, it is possible that we may not be able to touch the upper limit of 7% GDP growth. Keeping this in mind, we have given a broad range of 6.5 to 7%. Therefore, the actual results are expected to remain within our given range. Inflation level is not the best indicator of demand Inflation rate i.e. main inflation rate is not the best measure to understand the demand situation in the country, because we have seen such scenarios at the global level where the main inflation rate was within the right range, despite this the financial condition had deteriorated a lot. Exactly opposite situations have also been seen. Therefore, we always need to see whether this increase in prices is normal or it is limited to only a few sectors. There is no fear of slowdown in credit growth
In the first six months of the financial year, we have seen a credit growth rate of around 5.5%, which could reach 11% in annual figures. We have often seen a good strength in credit growth even when GDP growth has increased nominally. In the long term, we may see situations in which credit growth may remain slightly above or below this trend. Once some macro prudential actions take their course, credit growth is expected to pick up. Credit growth is also affected by factors such as monsoon affecting economic activity. As economic activity increases, credit growth will also increase.
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