Fed's decision will come tonight, the debate is whether the rates will be reduced by 0.25% or 0.5%. Today will be a good day for profit booking in the trading portfolio. CNBC-Awaaz viewers are long on Nifty since 24,800. Traders carrying long have 2 options today.
Option 1: Book full profit on trading long deals, take new position tomorrow
Option 2: Hedge long deals before market close
If you book profit, do not regret even a gap of 200 points. Think- what would have happened if Nifty opened 200 points down tomorrow? Both risk-reward and logic are not in your favor to take a new position. A new swing move will start in the market from tomorrow. If you remain neutral, you will be able to take a better decision on big trades tomorrow.
Fed meeting- The probability of Fed reducing rates by 50 bps is now 64% as compared to 62% yesterday.
US retail sales have increased more than expected. If Fed reduces rates by 25 bps, the market may fall initially but will rise later.
If Fed reduces rates by 50 bps, a hard top can form in global markets. In case of a 50 bps cut, any major rise will turn into selling. Another possibility is that Fed reduces rates by 40 bps. If rates fall by 40 bps, it will confuse everyone.
What should a trader do in the market? It depends on when you created your position. If you are long since August, then stay long.
If your entry was at 24,100, then there is no problem. If your entry was at 24,800, then book or hedge.
If your entry is above 25,000, then book. A good trader is not afraid of taking a position 200 points up or down.
If you remain neutral, then tomorrow you will get a fresh entry in a big swing. If you are in position, then your focus will be on handling that position. What should investors do? Stay invested, a lot of cash is ready to come into the market. In August, MFs have a record cash of Rs 1.86 lakh crore. A lot of domestic money is waiting for the right opportunity, it will not let the market fall much. If there is a big fall, then there will be an opportunity to add positions. Look for an opportunity to add IT stocks, especially midcap IT in the fall. Whatever the Fed's decision, book profits in metal stocks. Strategy on Nifty First Resistance: 25,445-25,516 (All-time high, option zone) Major Resistance: 25,558-25,650 (Chart) First Support: 25,350-25,400 (Yesterday's low) Major Support: 25,250-25,300 (Option zone) Sit back and enjoy today, avoid all temptations of the trade Strategy on Nifty Bank Weekly expiry of Nifty Bank Today Nifty Bank may be one step better than Nifty Nifty Bank may still move on Weekly expiry Option Writers Range: 51,900-52,400 Nifty Bank may remain in this range most of the time Wednesdays are mostly for Nifty Bank Option Writers Sit back and enjoy today, avoid all temptations of the trade
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