Will the share price of Cochin Shipyard fall by -60%? Experts told why this can happen:

News Topical, Digital Desk : Shares of government defense company Cochin Shipyard Ltd. have seen a tremendous rise in the last six sessions, but now Kotak Institutional Equities has warned that the stock may fall by about 60% from here. There has been a jump of 35% in the last 6 trading sessions. The stock has climbed 25% so far in 2025. But it is still 35% below its all-time high of ₹ 2,979. Let us tell you that Cochin Shipyard Ltd. (CSL) is a public sector company under the Government of India, which is engaged in shipbuilding and ship repair. It is one of the largest shipbuilding and ship repair companies in the country.

What does the report say- Q4FY25 results as expected, but margins were weaker than expected. The reason for this is attributed to higher provisions. However, there was some relief from "other income".

Repair orders for INS Vikrant and Vikramaditya have provided support. But these are one-time contracts, which raises concerns about the future order book. No major defense order was received in the last 2 years. Main orders were related to small commercial shipping or repairs.

Indian Navy's new focus- According to media reports, the Navy is now abandoning the plan to operate three aircraft carriers. Now there is a plan to build a second indigenous carrier as a replacement for INS Vikramaditya.

Due to weak order inflow, Kotak has cut its FY26 and FY27 earnings estimates by 3% and 6% respectively. Rating: Warning issued while downside. Price target: Raised from ₹830 to ₹850. Still, a fall of up to 60% from the current level is possible .

What do other analysts say? Out of a total of 5 brokerages, 3 have given "Buy" rating, 1 "Hold" and 1 "Sell". Overall- Cochin Shipyard's recent bullish performance was based on old repair contracts, which are now expiring. If new defense orders are not received, the company's income and profitability may come under pressure. The warning from brokerages like Kotak indicates that investors should be cautious at the current high prices. Disclaimer: The advice or views given on CNBC TV18 Hindi/CNBC-Awaaz are the personal views of the experts or the brokerage firm. The website or the management is not responsible for this. Before investing, please consult your financial advisor or certified experts.