New Delhi: In Australia and most parts of the country, the average temperature in the first fortnight of October is up to 2 degrees higher than the average temperature of September. Instead of the onset of mild winter, the feeling of heat has raised questions on the predictions of weather agencies around the world including IMD.

It was predicted that this year will be a harsh winter due to the creation of La-Nina conditions, but so far La-Nina has not formed. However, the Indian Meteorological Department still believes that this winter there are chances of lower than normal temperatures.

What is the probability of La Nina at the end of November?

On La Nina, the US agency NOAA, the Australian agency ABM and the Indian Meteorological Agency IMD had estimated in April that there was an 85% chance of La Nina developing in June. After this, the monsoon passed, but La Nina did not form. Now the latest estimate of the agencies is that there is a 60% chance of La Nina forming at the end of November.

Australia Weather Bureau: In a statement released this week, it said that the probability of La Nina developing in the coming months is decreasing. Four out of six climate models have confirmed this. Even if it develops, it will be weak and will be active for a short period of time. US agency NOAA:

There is a 60% chance of La Nina conditions developing at the end of November. There is a 71% chance of it continuing from January to March. (Two months ago, the probability of La Nina developing in October was 75%.) Our estimate is the same as the Australian Bureau. Every global weather agency failed to predict this global event, a deeper investigation is needed.

will look for the reason

So that there is no mistake in future forecasting, predictions like La Nina or El Nino are made on the basis of large scale global climate model, which India also believes in. Now in the forum that forecasts La Nina and El Nino in WMO, there will be a discussion about the reasons for wrong predictions so that there is no mistake in future forecasting. India's winter depends a lot on western disturbances, they can be predicted one to two weeks in advance. Skymet scientist Mahesh Palawat says that how severe the winter will be depends on the number and intensity of western disturbances.

La Nina brings good rains in India

In the years in which these disturbances come more often and their impact is felt from the north to the central region of the country, the winter is more intense. Western disturbances originate in the Mediterranean Sea and their path passes through the Himalayas from October to February. Due to this there is snowfall in the high altitude areas and rain in the plains. Western disturbances can be predicted one to two weeks in advance. La Nina or El Nino are caused by the increase or decrease in the temperature at both ends of the ocean. La Nina brings good rainfall in India while the opposite happens in El Nino.