RBI MPC: The meeting of the monetary policy committee of the Reserve Bank of India is going on from December 4 and its monetary policy will be announced on Thursday, December 6. This credit policy is going to be very important for the Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das. In this, RBI will have to take care of the inflation concerns and the fall in the country's growth rate in the second quarter. 

Nomura's rate forecast is the most different

While most economists and financial experts are expecting a credit policy without any change in interest rates this time too, Japanese investment bank Nomura's estimate is different from this. According to Nomura, in the December credit policy, RBI can cut the repo rate by 0.25 percent or 25 basis points and bring it to 6.25 percent. In the last 10 credit policies, RBI has not made any change in the policy interest rates and it remains at 6.50 percent.

A total reduction of 100 bps in repo rate is possible by mid-2025

Nomura has also estimated that by mid-June next year (2025), RBI can reduce the repo rate by 100 basis points or 1 percent, after which it will come down to 5.50 percent. It will start with the last policy of this calendar year i.e. the monetary policy coming tomorrow and a quarter percent reduction will be seen in it. RBI last changed it in February 2023 and it was brought down to 6.5 percent.

Nomura also reduced GDP forecast

Nomura has also reduced the GDP estimate for the financial year 2024-25 to 6 percent and reduced it from 6.9 percent. Apart from this, it has given an estimate of the growth rate being lower than the Reserve Bank of India's growth estimate of 7.2 percent.

Nomura said that the combined effect of slow GDP growth to moderate credit growth, increasing inflation and weak rupee will be seen on RBI's decision. Based on all these facts, RBI can take a decision of rate cut, but even if it does not do so, we are positive about India's medium term outlook.