The drop in the voter turnout in the initial phases of the ongoing Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh, as well in the country, compared to the 2019 polls has triggered a discussion on possible reasons and consequences of the same.

An analysis of the Election Commission data on voter turnout since the first Lok Sabha General Elections 1951-52 reveals interesting insights into voter behaviour in Uttar Pradesh.

U.P. LEADER IN POLITICS, LAGGARD IN VOTING

The data does not reveal any definite trend or any correlation between a voter turnout and an incumbent party’s electoral prospects. However, certain notable events or incidents preceding elections do appear to have some bearing on the voter turnout at times.

It is observed that U.P. and Bihar — the states that are leaders in politics — have been traditionally laggards in voting unlike many surrounding states like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab as well as southern states and the North-east where voter enthusiasm has been notably higher.

NO FIRST DIVISION FOR STATE

Uttar Pradesh has never recorded overall voter turnout of 60%, a first division, in the Lok Sabha elections. The state’s best of 59.29% in 2019 narrowly missed the “first division” mark.

Throughout history, U.P. has mostly recorded lower turnout than the national average, except for the second Lok Sabha elections in 1957 when it (46.02% slightly exceeded the national average at 45.44%).

In eight of the 17 Lok Sabha polls held in the country so far, Uttar Pradesh recorded voter turnout below 50% in 1951, 1957,1971, 1980, 1991, 1996, 2004 and 2009. The national average has been above 60% in seven elections in 1967 (the first time), 1977, 1984, 1989, 1988, 2014 and 2019.

The very first Lok Sabha polls in 1951-52 recorded the lowest voter turnout of 38.41% in U.P. and 44.87% nationally.

Subsequently, there were fluctuations in turnout, sometimes influenced by major events and political dynamics.

In the next election in 1957, the voter turnout in the state improved to 46.02% exceeding the country’s total turnout at 45.44%. The turnout surged to 54.51% in U.P. in the 1967 elections held in the backdrop of 1962 Indo-China war and 1965 Indo-Pak war. In this election, the national voter turnout surpassed 61%.

The turnout, however, dipped again to 46.01% in the state in 1971 and 55.27% in the country. Despite the fluctuations in voter turnout, the Congress remained in power for all these years.

By the 1977 Lok Sabha polls, marked by the first non-Congress government led by Morarji Desai at the Centre, the voter turnout rose to 56.44% in U.P. and 60.49% nationwide. The following elections in 1980 saw a decline in both state (49.96%) and national (56.92%) turnout. These polls resulted in the return of the Congress to power, contrary to the assumption that a lower turnout indicates support for the status quo.

The 1984 elections following assassination of then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi saw the Congress under Rajiv Gandhi returning to power by a landslide victory amid an increased voter turnout at 55.81% in UP and 61.95% in the country even though the higher polling is believed to be an indication of the anti-incumbency mood among voters.

A comparatively lower turnout of 51.27% in the state and 61.95% the country in 1989 ousted the Rajiv Gandhi’s government amid the Bofors scandal, paving the way for the formation of the VP Singh-led National Front government.

The 1991 and the 1996 Lok Sabha elections saw a dip in the turnout at 49.24% and 46.50% respectively in U.P. and 56.73% and 57.94% nationally. Both the elections led to the formation of a new government at the Centre. The turnout jumped to 55.27% and 61.95% in the state and in the country, respectively, in 1998 as the BJP came back to power after two years of unstable United Front governments between 1996 and 1998.

By 1999, the turnout fell slightly (53.53% in UP and 59.99% in the country) with no impact on the BJP government’s re-election. The turnout further dropped by around 1% both in the state and the country in 2004 but this time the incumbent government was voted out of power, paving the way for the formation of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government.

In the 2009 LS elections, the turnout in the U.P. further dropped to 47.77% against the almost stagnant 58.13% national average. The UPA returned to power for the second consecutive term.

The 2014 Lok Sabha elections held in the shadow of serious corruption charges against the UPA government and the anti-corruption crusade led by Anna Hazare saw a dramatic jump in the turnout by around 11% in U.P. and 8% in the national average. This was the highest-ever increase between two elections, resulting in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) winning by a landslide and forming the government under Narendra Modi at the Centre.

The turnout soared by around 1% to 59.21% in U.P. and 67.4% in the country, the highest-ever, only to repeat the Modi government in 2019.

NEVER THREE IN A ROW

Voter turnout has never increased for three consecutive elections both in the state and in the country since 1951-52.

Political scientist and former vice-chancellor of Mahatma Gandhi Central University Sanjiv Kumar Sharma emphasises that voter turnout alone does not predict the mood of voters or reelection of incumbent parties.

“There is hardly any correlation between an increase or decrease in voter turnout on the chances of the re-election of an incumbent party and this has been amply demonstrated by LS elections as well as assembly polls in states,” he noted.

He says that voter turnout in states like U.P/ and Bihar has been traditionally low, and the reasons may be many.

“One important reason could be the fact that a large number of migrants from these states living in other states and are not able to vote in their home states” he says, suggesting, “The Election Commission should find a way out of this situation.”