Third quarter GDP may increase, what is the reason? Learn everything from the report.:India's GDP growth could reach 8.3% in the third quarter of the current fiscal year, according to a report from the Union Bank of India

News Topical, Digital Desk : India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to reach 8.3 percent in the third quarter of the current financial year. This increase is likely due to increased demand due to the reduction in goods and services tax (GST) rates, although the impact of last year's high base (base effect) will also remain.

A Union Bank of India report said gross value added (GVA) growth could reach 8 percent in the third quarter of FY2026, up from 6.5 percent in the same quarter last year, although it could be slightly lower than 8.1 percent in the second quarter.

"The GDP growth figure for the third quarter of FY2026, to be released on February 27, is expected to be 8.3 per cent, significantly higher than 6.4 per cent in the same period last year," the report said.

According to the report, nominal GDP growth is projected to decline to 8.5 percent, down from 8.7 percent in the second quarter and 10.3 percent in the same period last year. This is attributed to a decline in the GDP deflator due to a decrease in inflation.

The bank said its estimates are based on the old base year as there is no clarity on the impact on GDP figures following the change in base year by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.

The report said that growth projections for FY2026 remain strong at present and initial indications for FY2027 are also positive, but annual projections will have to be reviewed once there is clarity on the new base year.

The Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MoSPI) will release GDP data on Friday with a revised base year of 2022-23. The government had previously stated that fiscal year 2022-23 has been chosen as the base year for the new series. The new inputs are intended to further strengthen GDP tracking in institutional sectors, particularly those related to private companies and MSMEs, where data has long been lacking.