JP Morgan analysts believe that crude oil prices may reach a low of $60 by the end of 2025 after rising to $80 a barrel in the last quarter of 2024 (October-December). This is about 10% higher than the current price level. JP Morgan's report says that given the economic changes taking place in the Gulf region, the main oil producing countries of West Asia have a reason (incentive) to increase oil prices due to the continuation of the current conflict. These include Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates i.e. UAE.

Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities Strategy Head at JPMorgan, said in a recent report, "The current situation suggests that given the low level of oil reserves, the geo-political premium in crude oil prices may persist in the short term until the conflict is resolved."

Brent crude oil prices have risen steadily over the past month, rising from $71 a barrel in late September to around $81 a barrel in early October. This was due to the increase in geo-political tensions in West Asia. However, they have lost most of their gains since then. Crude prices are now trading around $73 a barrel amid demand concerns and hopes of controlling the geo-political situation in West Asia. Analysts said that oil prices are under pressure due to weak oil demand outlook, especially due to concerns of economic slowdown in China and the US. In view of this, analysts at Rabobank International estimate that there is a possibility of additional supply of about 700,000 barrels per day in the market in 2025. This represents a dramatic change in their earlier forecasts. " We now expect the average price of Brent to be $ 71 in October-December 2024 (Q4-2024)," a note written by Rabobank International's Global Energy Strategist Joe DeLaura and Energy Strategist Florence Schmidt said. In addition, we estimate that 2025 prices will average $ 70, rising to $ 72 in 2026. Oil prices will be seen around $ 75 in 2027. "Recently weak demand data from China and the US and the supply glut amid demographic changes have forced us to revisit our models and forecasts." Meanwhile, the EIA has lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), citing weak economic activity in China and the US. It now expects growth of 1.2 million bpd to 104.3 million bpd. Demand in the US is also expected to reach 20.5 million bpd, lower than earlier estimates. On the other hand, OPEC has similarly cut its 2024 and 2025 forecasts. It has projected demand growth of 1.93 million bpd in 2024 and 1.64 million bpd in 2025 due to weak consumption. According to JP Morgan, the world's crude oil reserves currently stand at 4.4 billion barrels. This is much lower than last year's level. During that time Brent was trading at $ 92 per barrel. This is the lowest level since January 2017. JP Morgan said that OECD crude oil and liquids are below the five-year average and oil reserves in Cushing are well below the standards of the last 15 years.

Rabo Bank's note said, "Oil prices have fallen sharply in the last three weeks. Brent closed at $78.80 on the last trading day of August and by September 10, Brent fell to $68.68. Since then, prices have rebounded and current prices are around $74 per barrel. The new yearly low level is indicating further decline in the coming times. In view of this, we estimate that crude prices may cross the Fibonacci extension point of $66.10 by the end of this year."