Reliance Industries RIL Share: RIL stock has seen its biggest decline since 2024, but why and what next?:Reliance Industries RIL Share: The stock fell more than 5% in a single day

News Topical, Digital Desk : At the beginning of the new year 2026, the shares of Reliance Industries have brought a shock to the investors. The shares fell by more than 5% in a single day and registered the biggest fall since June 2024. Along with Reliance, the major indices of the market also appeared to be under pressure. Shares of Reliance Industries Ltd. fell by about 5.2% during trading on Tuesday. This is considered to be the worst trading day for Reliance after June 2024. Reliance has a very high weightage in the major indices of the Indian stock market, hence the effect of this fall was seen on the entire market and the domestic indices lagged behind the Asian markets.

Concerns stem from the retail sector, which is where the decline began.
According to a Bloomberg report, the biggest reason for Reliance's decline is believed to be growing concerns about the retail sector. ( Disclaimer : Network18 and TV18 operate channels and websites controlled by the Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.)

Fast-fashion company Trent Ltd. reported a 15% year-over-year decline in average revenue per square foot from its store space in the December quarter. This indicates that the environment in the Indian retail sector remains challenging. Citigroup Inc. also stated that intensifying competition in the retail sector is gradually eating away market share from older players. Investors took this statement as a warning not just for Trent, but for the entire sector. Reliance's retail business is considered a major driver of its share price. Brokerage ICICI Securities valued Reliance's retail business at over $103 billion in October, representing nearly half of Reliance's total market cap. Even though Reliance Retail is not a listed entity, negative news related to the sector directly impacts Reliance's share sentiment.

Profit-booking... Profit-booking was also a major reason behind the decline in Reliance shares. In 2025, Reliance's stock rose nearly 29%, while the benchmark NSE Nifty 50 gained only 11%. This meant that Reliance significantly outperformed the market. Consequently, investors considered it best to book profits at the beginning of 2026. The strength of the energy business was a key factor behind Reliance's strong performance last year. Improved gross refining margins and potential benefits from China's refining sector policies boosted investor confidence.

Growth triggers for 2026 still exist. While pressure is currently visible, brokerage Morgan Stanley believes Reliance has several growth triggers in 2026. These include the potential IPO of Jio Platforms, an increase in telecom tariffs, and further improvement in refining margins due to soft oil prices . Despite these positive factors, some risks remain for Reliance. Potential US tariffs on India, a weak recovery in consumer demand, and valuation pressures are making investors cautious. Currently, Reliance shares trade at more than 23 times forward earnings, well above its five-year average.