News Topical, Digital Desk : Iran Crisis: If the ongoing war against Iran continues for a long time, it could prove to be a major blow to the global economy. On Friday, crude oil prices crossed the $90 mark. However, according to Qatar's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi, prices could reach $150. This is a matter of concern for India because, according to one estimate, every $10 increase in crude oil prices could impact GDP by half a percent. This means that the current crisis could have a profound impact on India's GDP. In such a situation, caution among investors may increase, which could further cause the market to crash.
What is the latest warning?
On Friday, a Qatari minister said in an interview with the Financial Times that if the conflict in the region continues, energy producers in the Gulf may be forced to declare "force majeure." This would mean that companies would be unable to meet their supply commitments due to the extraordinary circumstances. He added that companies that have not yet declared force majeure may be forced to do so in the coming days. Failure to do so could result in legal liability and significant financial losses. He added that if tankers and ships are unable to transit the route for the next two to three weeks, crude oil prices could reach $150 per barrel. Natural gas prices could also rise to $40 per mmBtu, nearly four times higher than pre-war levels.
What will be the impact?
ANI reported that Vandana Bharti, Commodity Research Head at SMC Global Securities, said that every $10 increase in crude oil prices could impact India's GDP by approximately 0.5 percent. Prices have recently risen by approximately $10 to $15, so this could be reflected in economic activity and GDP figures in the future.
According to Bharti, the market is not only facing the risk of sea route closures, but insurance premiums and freight costs are also rapidly increasing. Many shipments are being sent via alternative routes, adding a "war premium" to crude oil prices and increasing market uncertainty. The ongoing conflict in West Asia
has intensified.
On the seventh day of the conflict, attacks have been reported in several parts of the region. Meanwhile, the US and Israel have escalated their attacks against Iran. Israel has claimed to have attacked a bunker in Tehran that was being used by Iran's top leadership.
According to US officials, ballistic missile attacks by Iran have decreased by approximately 90 percent and drone attacks by 83 percent, offering some hope of relief for Gulf countries.
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