Nifty Slides for 8th Straight Week in Worst Run Since 2001: Key Levels for October 5

The Indian benchmark index Nifty has logged an eighth consecutive weekly decline, tumbling 0.88 percent on Thursday and officially surpassing the seven-week downturn recorded during the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic. This persistent sell-off marks Dalal Street’s longest weekly losing streak since 2001. A relentless climb in US Treasury yields, hardening crude oil prices, and aggressive capital outflows by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have kept benchmark indices under heavy selling pressure. Broader market indices also faced acute headwinds, with the Nifty Midcap 100 dropping 1.01 percent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 sliding 0.97 percent, underscoring systemic caution across market capitalizations.

Sector Performance: Bank Nifty Tumbles as Auto Heavyweights Drag

Banking counters offered little reprieve to bulls, with Nifty Bank closing at 54,450.75, down 0.33 percent for the session. On a cumulative weekly timeframe, the banking gauge retreated 2.03 percent, chalking up its sixth straight weekly loss. Market breadth showed sharp stock-specific divergence. IT heavyweight Infosys and private insurer HDFC Life emerged as the top performers on the Nifty index, staging isolated defensive gains. Conversely, prominent automobile manufacturing giants Bajaj Auto and Maruti Suzuki faced severe selling pressure, leading the losers' pack as macro headwinds weighed heavily on consumer discretionary counters.

Macro Headwinds: US Treasury Yields Spike Past 5.3% as Oil Firms Up

Global monetary indicators continue to undermine risk appetite across emerging markets. The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield surged above 5.3 percent, eclipsing its 2007 highs to touch levels last seen in April 2002. Concurrently, the 30-year US sovereign yield rose to 5.6 percent, pushing the Nifty's earnings yield below the risk-free return of US government paper. Market analysts emphasize that an enduring recovery on domestic bourses remains difficult until sovereign yields stabilize, international crude benchmarks soften, and foreign institutional selling eases substantially.

Major Triggers Ahead: RBI MPC Verdict, GST 2.0 Reforms, and Q2 Earnings

Dalal Street participants are closely monitoring a series of high-impact domestic and international events scheduled for early October. On the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee decision and the GST Council meeting on structural GST 2.0 reforms—both scheduled for Wednesday, October 7—serve as major pivot points. Globally, the latest US non-farm payrolls data and sovereign yield curves will guide foreign capital flows. Furthermore, the imminent corporate earnings season could provide fundamental support to stabilize battered equity valuations if corporate numbers exceed guidance.

Key Technical Levels for October 5: Experts Pinpoint 22,200 Support and 22,600 Resistance

• Sudip Shah, SBI Securities: Identifies the 22,250–22,220 zone as immediate technical support aligned with Thursday's intraday lows. A decisive breach below this base could trigger accelerated liquidation toward 22,130. On the upside, the 22,600–22,620 range represents an immediate hurdle, with a breakout paving the path toward 22,750, though overall market structure remains fragile without sustained institutional accumulation.

• Rupak Dey, LKP Securities: Highlights that Nifty closed below its 200-week moving average for the first time since the March 2020 pandemic crash. Dey pegs primary support at 22,200, below which the slide could extend toward 22,060. The 22,600 mark remains a rigid resistance level, keeping the market vulnerable to a "sell-on-rise" strategy while the index trades below it.

• Hitesh Rathi, Angel One: Identifies the broader 22,200–22,000 corridor as a crucial safety cushion for benchmark indices. Immediate resistance stands at 22,550–22,600, while the 22,800–22,900 range forms an overhead technical barrier against bullish reversals.