Sameer Arora says that the main reason behind the sell-off in the Indian stock market is the increasing investment in China. Apart from this, the other reason is geopolitical tension (the ongoing war between Israel and Iran). But geopolitical tension is a bigger tension than China. It is difficult to say how big it will be.

Question- Is 'Sell in India, Buy in China' going to increase tension?

Sameer Arora says that- In my view, it does not really matter. I do not think that foreign investors will work on the strategy of "sell in India and buy in China" for small margins. Yes, if China performs well, some emerging funds like Asia-Japan funds, and Asia-Pacific funds can increase their investment. This will also be beneficial for India. Due to China's poor performance, the returns of these funds fell. One thing is clear here that if the whole region is struggling, you cannot succeed. But if China performs poorly, you can perform comparatively better, but ultimately, you perform better when the whole region including China is performing well. China's market is 5% more expensive than India in a week - the Chinese market has suddenly become 25% more expensive than two weeks ago. Suppose the China index was up 20% and is now up 25%, the valuation of the entire index has gone up by about 5-7%. This means India is now 5% cheaper than it was a week ago. This is how the market works. This is how the world thinks. Meanwhile, Indian mutual funds are sitting on cash. If other markets like the US (due to rate cuts) or China (due to stimulus) perform well, Indian fund managers will also make big investments with more confidence. (How much will geopolitical risk and the boom in China's market affect India? Know what a veteran expert said) Global tension is big - it is difficult to say whether it will turn into a major incident or not. Israel is fighting several groups - Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and directly from Iran. We can only get guidance from the markets. Major markets like the US and Asian markets show that this conflict is still considered controlled. But there were more attacks yesterday. (FIIs from India-Why did foreign investors start pulling out their money from India? What's next after the biggest sell-off in 4 years?) But... right now, it seems that Israel is thinking that if Trump wins, he will support him, and if Kamala Harris wins, she can press for a peace deal. So, maybe Israel is escalating its actions. It's going to be quite complicated for us beyond a certain point. Question-How do you see the price of crude oil at $75?  Exactly. If the war was expected to get serious, the markets would not be so calm. There is talk that oil prices could fall - Saudi Arabia even said it could fall to $50. Also, if Trump wins, which I think is more likely, the pressure on oil prices is likely to ease because (a) he is more active and aggressive in dealing with the Middle East, and (b) he is lifting many restrictions on oil drilling.