New Delhi. India's GDP growth in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2023-24 (Q4 FY24) can be between 6.1-6.7 percent. This estimate has been made by different economists. This is less than the last three quarters, when the country's economy grew continuously at a rate of 8 percent or more.

India's GDP grew at 8.2 percent in the June quarter of 2023-24, 8.1 percent in the September quarter and 8.4 percent in the December quarter. If we talk about the GDP data for the fourth quarter (January-March) and the full financial year 2024, then the government is going to release the initial estimates on 31 May.

What is the opinion of economists

Economists believe that India's GDP growth can be between 7.6-7.8 percent during the financial year 2023-24. Kotak Mahindra Bank Chief Economist Upasana Bhardwaj says that many sectors have performed very well in the fourth quarter, but the growth of some segments like trade and hotels has been sluggish.

He said, 'Manufacturing activities have also been good. Construction and investment sectors should perform better. But the growth of the agriculture sector may slow down. It may see a decline during the fourth quarter. We are expecting 6.1 percent GDP growth for the fourth quarter. And according to this, GDP growth for the whole year should be around 7.6 percent.'

If we talk about last year, India's GDP grew by 6.1 percent in the March quarter of FY 2022-23, as per estimates for May 31, 2023. The growth for the entire FY 2022-23 was 7 percent.

At the same time, for the current financial year i.e. 2024-25, Kotak Mahindra Bank expects GDP growth to be 6.6 percent. Its trend is upward, meaning it may increase further. Its Chief Economist Upasana Bhardwaj says that rural consumption is likely to increase, but exports may be affected in the second half of the current financial year. This may shock the growth rate.

7% growth in the current financial year?

DK Srivastava, chief policy advisor, EY India, says both domestic and international institutions are projecting strong growth of around 7 per cent for India in FY25. He said, 'GDP growth is estimated to be over 6.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of FY24. This could lead to annual GDP growth close to 7.8 per cent, as projected by the IMF.'

Another rating agency - India Ratings and Research expects the country's GDP growth rate to be 6.2 percent in the March quarter for 2023-24. At the same time, domestic rating agency ICRA on Tuesday estimated that India's GDP growth rate will fall to a four-quarter low of 6.7 percent in the March quarter of FY 2023-24. For the full 2023-24 financial year, ICRA estimates GDP growth at 7.8 percent.

The Reserve Bank (RBI), in its monetary policy review in April, had projected GDP growth at 7 per cent for 2023-24.