Amid the ongoing turmoil in the Indian market, brokerage firm Morgan Stanley has released an estimate regarding its outlook in 2025. According to Morgan Stanley, the BSE Sensex index can reach the level of 1,05,000 by the end of this year. The brokerage has expressed a 30% probability of this happening. The brokerage firm expects oil prices to remain below $ 70 per barrel, which will reduce domestic inflation. This may prompt the RBI to further cut interest rates.

Meanwhile, government reforms can also improve the growth, including reduction in GST rates and reforms in the agriculture sector. Due to this growth, the Sensex income is expected to grow at a rate of 20% per annum in the financial year 2024-2027.

What will happen in the base case
Morgan Stanley has set a 50% probability for the base case. Under this, the target of Sensex has been set at 93,000. In this case, the brokerage expects a slight reduction in interest rates, positive liquidity environment and Sensex income will grow at a rate of 17% per annum by the financial year 2027.

What does the firm say in the bear case
Morgan Stanley has set a target of 70,000 for the Sensex and has expressed a 20% probability of this happening. In this case, oil prices are expected to cross $ 110 per barrel, due to which RBI will tighten the rates to maintain the macro situation. It also indicates a recession in countries around the world, including the US. Here, Sensex earnings are projected to grow at 15% annually till FY26 and equity multiples will be lowered to project poor macros.

Based on this, Morgan Stanley is "overweight" on sectors such as financials, consumer discretionary, industrials and technology stocks. It is "underweight" on consumer staples, energy, healthcare, utilities and materials. The brokerage has added 10 stocks to its focus list during this period. Let's take a look at them here -

BrainBees Solutions: The newly listed stock is rated "overweight" by Morgan Stanley with a price target of Rs 818, which implies an upside of 29% from current levels. All 5 analysts tracking the stock have given it a "buy" rating.

Maruti Suzuki: India's largest car manufacturer has been given an "overweight" rating and a price target of Rs 14,124, which implies a 19% upside from current levels. Trent: According to Morgan Stanley, the stock is expected to gain 11% this year after generating over 100% returns in 2024. A target price of Rs 8,032 has been set for the stock. Reliance Industries: The company's shares are recovering somewhat from recent lows. It had fallen more than 20% from its peak. It is now witnessing some selling pressure at higher levels, which also contributed to a 22 point decline on the Nifty. ICICI Bank: Morgan Stanley has a price target of Rs 1,650 for ICICI Bank. This also means that it can see an upside of more than 30% from current levels. SBI Life: According to Morgan Stanley, SBI Life shares can gain up to 52% this year. Hence, the brokerage has set its price target at Rs 2,240. Hindustan Aeronautics: This PSU defence company has been given an "overweight" rating by Morgan Stanley, with a price target of Rs 5,292. This means that it has a potential upside of 27% from current levels. L&T: