Vodafone Idea Could Surge Up to 143% to ₹29, Predicts Jefferies
Global brokerage Jefferies has outlined a three-scenario valuation framework for Vodafone Idea shares, presenting a bull-case target of ₹29 (143% upside) and a revised base target of ₹16 on the back of tower rollouts, 6 million subscriber additions, and tariff hikes, even as Dalal Street consensus remains split with 10 'Sell' ratings.
Global brokerage firm Jefferies has issued a comprehensive scenario-based assessment on telecom operator Vodafone Idea Limited (Vi), projecting an upside potential of up to 143% in an aggressive bull-case scenario where the stock could reach ₹29 per share from its trading price of ₹12.17 recorded during morning trade on Tuesday, October 27, 2026. While the international brokerage moderated its core base-case target price from ₹20 down to ₹16, the revised benchmark continues to signal a healthy upside potential of approximately 34% over prevailing market valuations, set against a weak bear-case scenario target of ₹9 should operational and tariff recoveries falter. Highlighting that Vodafone Idea's stock has retreated roughly 23% from its recent 52-week peak and dropped 10% over the trailing month—moderating its calendar year 2026 advance to just 5%—Jefferies noted that the counter is currently trading below its five-year average EV-to-Cash EBITDA multiple, creating an attractive risk-reward entry point supported by steadying underlying subscriber engagement metrics.
Network Expansion to 2,61,000 Sites and 6-Million Subscriber Addition Roadmap
Underpinning Jefferies' constructive medium-term thesis is Vodafone Idea's operational turnaround roadmap, which centers on aggressive network densification and accelerated capital expenditure to bridge coverage gaps against peer telecom operators. The brokerage projects solid operating metrics between fiscal years 2026 and 2029 (FY2026–FY2029), forecasting an 11% compounded annual growth in top-line revenue alongside an accelerated 25% annual expansion in operational EBITDA. Powering this turnaround is an estimated 26% growth in the telco’s physical network footprint, which is expected to scale to 2,61,000 active network sites across India to support improved coverage and data speeds. Enabled by this enhanced network infrastructure, Jefferies anticipates Vodafone Idea to arrest customer attrition and onboard approximately 6 million new subscribers between FY2027 and FY2029, a turnaround in subscriber numbers that will allow the company to monetize network investments and capture greater operating leverage.
10% Tariff Hike Sensitivity Math vs. Street Divide: Why 10 Analysts Still Recommend 'Sell'
The research report also highlights the financial sensitivity of Vodafone Idea’s earnings to cyclical pricing interventions, demonstrating that headline tariff increases serve as the single largest catalyst for balance-sheet repair. According to Jefferies' sensitivity calculations, every 10% increase in headline mobile tariffs delivers an immediate 17% expansion in Vodafone Idea’s cash EBITDA, which in turn could unlock an estimated 38% appreciation in the telecom company's enterprise market value. However, the broader institutional landscape on Dalal Street reflects caution regarding the cash-strapped carrier's high debt load and capital requirements, with consensus tracking across 22 equity research analysts revealing that 10 brokerages maintain a definitive 'Sell' rating, 8 recommend a 'Hold', and only 4 issue a 'Buy'. Because the composite average of all analyst price targets indicates zero upside from current market levels, the vast divergence between Jefferies' ₹29 bull-case forecast and broader Street caution emphasizes that any long-term rerating remains strictly contingent on consistent subscriber retention, tariff execution, and network upgrades.
