India's automotive sector is poised to wrap up September on strong footing, demonstrating consumer appetite that has largely absorbed recent sticker-price hikes across major original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). According to consensus estimates gathered from a CNBC-TV18 industry poll, overall passenger vehicle (PV) wholesale shipments are projected to expand by roughly 20 percent year-on-year, propelled by aggressive dealer stocking ahead of peak festive demand. Commercial vehicles, specifically Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (M&HCV), are tracking a robust 25 percent annual volume jump, powered by sustained infrastructure capex and fleet renewal cycles, with market leaders Ashok Leyland and Tata Motors commercial division projected to clock 24 percent expansions to 23,350 units and 44,500 units respectively.

Two-Wheelers and EV Momentum: TVS Motor and Ather Outperform While Commuter Rivals Steady

The two-wheeler industry is tracking an aggregate 6 percent volume rise in September, characterized by notable outperformance in premium and alternative-propulsion segments. TVS Motor Company leads traditional incumbents with an estimated 18 percent volume surge to 6.52 lakh units, up from 5.41 lakh units in the year-ago period, while Bajaj Auto is projected to deliver 13 percent growth to 5.79 lakh units. Royal Enfield continues its premiumization run with an expected 8 percent rise to 1.35 lakh units, whereas market volume anchor Hero MotoCorp is pegged for steady 2 percent growth toward 7 lakh units. The electric two-wheeler (E2W) space continues to outpace internal combustion counterparts with an estimated 87 percent sector expansion, spearheaded by Ather Energy, which is projected to see dispatches surge 55 percent to roughly 30,000 units compared to 19,400 units last September.

PV Leaders Advance While Rural Tractor Drag and High-Base October Headwinds Loom

In the passenger car arena, market leader Maruti Suzuki is forecasted to record a 23 percent dispatch surge to 2.33 lakh units, up from 1.89 lakh units last year, while Mahindra & Mahindra's automotive division is pegged for a 16 percent increase to 1.17 lakh units. Tata Motors' PV division is projected to rise 14 percent to 69,000 units, and Hyundai Motor India is estimated to dispatch 74,000 units, reflecting 6 percent growth. In contrast, agrarian machinery remains the pronounced laggard across the broader mobility basket, with total tractor dispatches anticipated to decline 15 percent, led by an 11 percent volume drop at Mahindra & Mahindra to around 58,667 units from 66,100 units last year. While retail off-take remains resilient heading into the festive corridor, analysts caution that elevated base effects starting in October, paired with lingering commodity price pressures, could test OEM operating margins and post-festive volume durability.