In its comprehensive meteorological bulletin released on Tuesday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed that the Southwest Monsoon has commenced its seasonal retreat across extensive swathes of northern India. The critical monsoon withdrawal line is currently cutting directly through the Muzaffarnagar and Aligarh belts of Uttar Pradesh, signaling the beginning of the end for the 2026 rainy season. Simultaneously, meteorologists noted the persistence of an upper air cyclonic circulation over eastern Uttar Pradesh in the lower tropospheric levels. This localized circulation continues to create temporary atmospheric instability, resulting in localized transitions in cloud cover and ambient moisture before the dry continental air mass completely establishes dominance over the state.

Regional Forecast Breakdown: Final Showers in Purvanchal vs Dry Spell in Western UP

The regional weather pattern presents a stark geographical divide across the state over the closing days of September. Under the lingering influence of the cyclonic circulation, eastern Uttar Pradesh—including key districts such as Varanasi, Mirzapur, Sonbhadra, and Azamgarh—is expected to witness light, isolated, or scattered precipitation between September 29 and September 30. Once this transient moisture system dissolves, completely dry weather will prevail across the entire eastern belt from October 1 through October 5. Conversely, western Uttar Pradesh has already entered an arid phase, with virtually all western districts forecast to remain thoroughly dry between September 30 and October 5, accompanied by an upward trend in daytime temperatures as clear skies allow unfiltered solar heating.

First Week of October Farewell: Rising Mercury and Vital Advisory for Agrarian Sector

With the seasonal wind patterns shifting from moist easterlies to dry north-westerlies, the monsoon is projected to conclude its complete exit from Uttar Pradesh during the first week of October. This seasonal transition will trigger noticeable fluctuations in both daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures, leading to warmer afternoons and gradually cooler dawns. In light of the incoming prolonged dry spell, agricultural authorities and meteorologists have issued timely operational advisories to farmers across the state. Cultivators are advised to leverage the rain-free conditions to expedite crop harvesting, manage drainage, and initiate preparatory work for the upcoming Rabi sowing window without the risk of unseasonal rain damage.