Sugar Stocks Surge: DAM Capital Suggests 'Buy' on Triveni, Dalmia, and Balrampur Chini

The Indian sugar sector is witnessing a strong resurgence driven by a sharp upward movement in domestic sugar prices over the past two months. Prominent brokerage firm DAM Capital has released a bullish outlook on the industry, issuing 'Buy' ratings for three major sugar stocks—Triveni Engineering, Dalmia Bharat Sugar, and Balrampur Chini—predicting potential price rallies of up to 48 percent from current market levels.

Surge in Domestic Sugar Prices and Government Intervention

Domestic sugar prices have experienced a notable climb, surging from ₹38 to ₹41 per kg in June 2026 to between ₹52 and ₹55 per kg by late August, with ex-factory prices briefly peaking at ₹68 per kg. To stabilize the market and curb hoarding, the government intervened by permitting the import of 1 million tonnes of duty-free sugar and imposing temporary 15-day stockholding limits on bulk buyers.

Despite subsequent price softening, imported sugar arriving at roughly ₹50 per kg is expected to establish a solid price floor for the domestic market. With approximately 2 million tonnes of anticipated imports projected to reach India by March 2027, DAM Capital has upgraded its sugar recovery forecast for FY2027 and FY28 to ₹47 per kg, creating a highly profitable operating environment for agile sugar refiners and producers.

1. Triveni Engineering (Target: ₹415 | Potential Upside: 46%)

DAM Capital has assigned a 'Buy' rating to Triveni Engineering with a target price of ₹415 per share, representing a 46 percent upside from its previous close of ₹283.82.

• Operational Strengths: Triveni stands out due to its limited exposure to crop disruptions caused by the Co-0238 sugarcane disease. Over half of its distillery capacity can flexibly switch to grain processing.

• Growth Projections: Ethanol volumes are projected to surge by 17 percent to reach 250 million liters in fiscal year 2027 at high capacity utilization. Backed by better volumes and recoveries, the company's operating profit is estimated to jump by 79.5 percent to ₹730 crore this fiscal year.

2. Dalmia Bharat Sugar (Target: ₹710 | Potential Upside: 48.5%)

Dalmia Bharat Sugar has also received a 'Buy' rating with a target price of ₹710 per share, implying an impressive 48.5 percent upside from its closing price of ₹477.95.

• Low-Cost Inventory Advantage: The company closed June with 230,000 tonnes of inventory at a low carrying cost of ₹36.9 per kg, providing one of the lowest cost bases in the industry amidst spot prices exceeding ₹50 per kg.

• Earnings Outlook: Sector-leading recovery rates and successful participation in government import programs are expected to expand margins. Operating profits are forecast to grow by 54.6 percent to ₹660 crore in FY27.

3. Balrampur Chini Mills (Target: ₹825 | Potential Upside: 26%)

Referred to by DAM Capital as a "Purest Sugar Play," Balrampur Chini holds a 'Buy' rating with a target price of ₹825 per share, indicating a 26 percent upside compared to its ₹654.85 close.

• Robust Replanting: More than 90 percent of the company's catchment area has been successfully replanted away from the vulnerable Co-0238 variety, positioning it for higher crushing volumes in Sugar Season 2027 (SS27).

• EBITDA Expansion: Despite a temporary dip in distillery volumes, higher sugar price realizations are expected to drive a 53.6 percent growth in EBITDA for FY27, with further acceleration expected following upcoming PLA commissioning.

Strong Market Response Across Sugar Counters

Reflecting the positive brokerage coverage, all three sugar stocks witnessed robust buying momentum during Monday's trading session. Triveni Engineering climbed nearly 4 percent to trade at ₹294.99, Dalmia Bharat Sugar surged roughly 6.5 percent to ₹509.10, and Balrampur Chini led the pack with a stellar 9.5 percent rally, trading at ₹716.90.